New State Polls (10/20/16)
| |||||||||
State
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Margin of Error
|
Sample
|
Clinton
|
Trump
|
Undecided
|
Poll Margin
|
FHQ Margin
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
|
10/17-10/18
|
+/-4.12%
|
550 likely voters
|
41
|
41
|
10
|
+/-0
|
+1.13
| |
Michigan
|
10/18
|
+/-2.95
|
1102 likely voters
|
51
|
38
|
3
|
+13
|
+6.96
| |
Ohio
|
10/17-10/19
|
+/-4.4%
|
500 likely voters
|
45
|
45
|
6
|
+/-0
|
+0.69
| |
--
Changes (10/20/16)
There were just a handful of polls in the field before the final presidential debate that trickled out the day after debate season came to a close. Most were in under the wire before Clinton and Trump squared off for the final time in Las Vegas. Interestingly, the two closest states in the averages here at FHQ -- Arizona and Ohio -- were found to be tied in two of the three polls released today. The effect was to narrow the margins further in both, pushing them closer to the partisan line.
The other poll was out of Michigan, and it was the only one that triggered any change in the figures here. On the strength of a 13 point Clinton lead in the latest Mitchell poll, the Great Lakes state nudges past Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine deeper into the Lean Clinton area on the Electoral College Spectrum below.
The map remained unchanged as did the Watch List.
The Electoral College Spectrum1
| ||||
MD-102
(13)
|
WA-12
(162)
|
PA-20
(263)
|
TX-38
(154)
|
SD-3
(53)
|
HI-4
(17)
|
NJ-14
(176)
|
CO-94
(272 | 275)
|
AK-3
(116)
|
AR-6
(50)
|
VT-3
(20)
|
OR-7
(183)
|
FL-29
(301 | 266) |
SC-9
(113)
|
ND-3
(44)
|
CA-55
(75)
|
NM-5
(188)
|
NC-15
(316 | 237) |
IN-11
(104)
|
KY-8
(41)
|
MA-11
(86)
|
MI-16
(204)
|
NV-6
(322 | 222)
|
UT-6
(93)
|
NE-53
(33)
|
NY-29+13
(116)
|
ME-23
(206)
|
OH-18
(340 | 216)
|
MS-6
(87)
|
AL-9
(28)
|
IL-20
(136)
|
MN-10
(216)
|
AZ-11
(198)
|
KS-6
(81)
|
OK-7
(19)
|
DE-3
(139)
|
WI-10
(226)
|
IA-6
(187)
|
LA-8
(75)
|
ID-4
(12)
|
CT-7
(146)
|
VA-13
(239)
|
GA-16+13
(181)
|
MT-3
(67)
|
WV-5
(8)
|
RI-4
(150)
|
NH-4
(243)
|
MO-10
(164)
|
TN-11
(64)
|
WY-3
(3)
|
1 Follow the link for a detailed explanation on how to read the Electoral College Spectrum.
2 The numbers in the parentheses refer to the number of electoral votes a candidate would have if he or she won all the states ranked prior to that state. If, for example, Trump won all the states up to and including Colorado (all Clinton's toss up states plus Colorado), he would have 275 electoral votes. Trump's numbers are only totaled through the states he would need in order to get to 270. In those cases, Clinton's number is on the left and Trumps's is on the right in bold italics. To keep the figure to 50 cells, Washington, DC and its three electoral votes are included in the beginning total on the Democratic side of the spectrum. The District has historically been the most Democratic state in the Electoral College. 3 Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral college votes to candidates in a more proportional manner. The statewide winner receives the two electoral votes apportioned to the state based on the two US Senate seats each state has. Additionally, the winner within a congressional district is awarded one electoral vote. Given current polling, all five Nebraska electoral votes would be allocated to Trump. In Maine, a split seems more likely. Trump leads in Maine's second congressional district while Clinton is ahead statewide and in the first district. She would receive three of the four Maine electoral votes and Trump the remaining electoral vote. Those congressional district votes are added approximately where they would fall in the Spectrum above. 4 Colorado is the state where Clinton crosses the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidential election. That line is referred to as the victory line. Currently, Colorado is in the Toss Up Clinton category. | ||||
NOTE: Distinctions are made between states based on how much they favor one candidate or another. States with a margin greater than 10 percent between Clinton and Trump are "Strong" states. Those with a margin of 5 to 10 percent "Lean" toward one of the two (presumptive) nominees. Finally, states with a spread in the graduated weighted averages of both the candidates' shares of polling support less than 5 percent are "Toss Up" states. The darker a state is shaded in any of the figures here, the more strongly it is aligned with one of the candidates. Not all states along or near the boundaries between categories are close to pushing over into a neighboring group. Those most likely to switch -- those within a percentage point of the various lines of demarcation -- are included on the Watch List below.
The Watch List1
| |||
State
|
Switch
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Lean Clinton
| |
Indiana
|
from Lean Trump
|
to Strong Trump
| |
Maine CD2
|
from Toss Up Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Mississippi
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
Ohio
|
from Toss Up Clinton
|
to Toss Up Trump
| |
Oregon
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Strong Clinton
| |
Pennsylvania
|
from Lean Clinton
|
to Toss Up Clinton
| |
Utah
|
from Strong Trump
|
to Lean Trump
| |
1 Graduated weighted average margin within a fraction of a point of changing categories.
| |||
Recent Posts:
The Electoral College Map (10/19/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/18/16)
The Electoral College Map (10/17/16)
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